NFL Russian Roulette: Which Team Will Knock Your Team Out?

Happy New Year I-95ers!  The arrival of 2011 means the NFL playoffs are about to kickoff.  Of course, we have one last regular season Sunday before next week’s Wild Card round.  There is still seeding to be determined in both conferences although most of the participants have been decided.  For us along the I-95 corridor, four of our six teams have already qualified for the postseason, with a fifth team needing some help.  If you want to watch Redskins playoff football, load Madden 11 right now.

The question now remains, what match-up best favors your I-95 team next week and beyond?  The Patriots are, at the moment, the only team based on their #1 seed sitting out the Wild Card round (Baltimore can clinch a first-round bye with a win and some help from PIT).  For the others, none actually know who they will play next week.  But be careful what you wish for because on any given Sunday?  It’s like the six chambers in a gun playing Russian roulette.  Each team represents a chamber.  Which chamber holds the team’s bullet that will knock you out?

New England Patriots (Clinched AFC #1 Seed – First-Round Bye & Home-Field Advantage)

Here we are again.  A Pats rebuilding year turns into the best record in the NFL.  Year after year, Belichick transforms young, inexperienced players into postseason gold – and sometimes Tiffany sterling silver shaped like a football.  The AFC’s playoff seeding is a fluid situation so the Pats could be in-line to play virtually any team in the Divisional round.  Depending on tomorrow, the Pats could play Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Indy, KC or the Jets.  That’s a lot of teams to scheme for but I’m sure Belichick and Co. are up to the challenge.

My Take: The Pats are young but lethal.  If there is one team that can parlay its success from regular to postseason, it’s New England.  Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an INT since mid-October and the defense is points-stingy.  If Peyton makes it in, would you want him coming to town?  If I put my money on an easy win for the Pats, Jacksonville would be my first guess.  Although, if the Jags can’t get a win with that Indy loss and are sitting home next week, KC is the next best thing.  Pats fans should hope that Kansas City drops to the #4 seed and Indy, who would be the #3 seed, beats the #6.  That would send QB Matt Cassel, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel back to New England for a match-up with his former team and a game Belichick will win.  A third choice would be the Pats opening a can of you know what on the Jets… again.

The Bullet that would knock them out: AFC North survivor in the Championship game (either Baltimore or Pittsburgh)

Philadelphia Eagles (Clinched NFC #3 Seed – Wild Card Round Home Game)

The Eagles are locked into the #3 seed which means they will host the #6 seed.  Three potential teams could emerge with the final NFC spot: the Packers, Giants or Bucs.  Good news for Philly is the success they’ve had against the Giants this year, especially with that amazing comeback a few weeks ago.  A loss against the Packers Week 1 is so long ago, it really tells us nothing about how they would match-up next week.  They haven’t played the Bucs this year.  Perhaps playing in under 42 degree weather will affect Tampa?  If Vick puts last week’s tepid performance against Minnesota behind him, he should play equal – if not better – than he did during the regular season.

My Take: Bucs, definitely Bucs.  But with Chicago locked into a bye and the Falcons playing the lowly Panthers, the Packers have an easy path to that final spot.  If I were the Eagles, I would want the G-Men.  Beating a team three times in a season has occurred, but not often.  If the Giants sneak in though, their performance against the Skins would be determinative of whether I’d bet the house on them against Vick and their favorite punt return specialist, DeSean Jackson.  This year, I think the Eagles have the Giants covered.  Aaron Rodgers is due for some playoff magic and if I were Vick, I wouldn’t want it at my expense.

The Bullet: Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens (Currently AFC #5 Seed – Can Move Up to #2 Seed & First-Round Bye w/ help)

The Ravens have been an enigma this season.  When they beat the Jets in week 1, they shut up Gang Green’s Super Bowl talk.  Since then, they have had a strong but not convincing championship run.  Their losses aren’t shocking (at NE, at ATL, PIT) save the week 2 loss to Cincinnati.  Their wins, based on the schedule, are mostly unimpressive.  They stuck it to the Saints and beat the Steelers at Heinz Field which are very notable.  A win plus a Steelers loss would give the Ravens a bye, making much of this talk moot.  However, Cleveland put the kibosh on Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes last season.  I doubt a repeat is in order.

My Take: For argument sake, Baltimore remains the #5 seed.  Who would they want?  It’ll be either Indy, Jacksonville or Kansas City.  Despite probably having a better record against each of these teams, they will be on the road.  Manning in Indianapolis?  Nope, don’t want that.  Chiefs at Arrowhead, in the playoffs?  No.  Jacksonville?  Yes.  But if the Jags don’t make it, I’d take the Chiefs.  Last year was a Colts year and they are certainly nowhere near that.  But would you want your Ravens D against Peyton or an inexperienced KC squad.  Yeah, I thought so.

If Baltimore manages to secure the #2 seed, they would, like the Patriots, have numerous teams they could be playing.  I’m thoroughly unconvinced with the Jags.  Based on the scenarios, if the Jags are in and if Baltimore were a #2, the Jets would have to be the #5.  If the Jags beat the Jets, that would speak volumes about the Jets, not the Jags.  They would be my first wish.  But if not the Jags, then I could see a promising Divisional victory against the Chiefs.

The Bullet: Pittsburgh Steelers

New York Jets (Currently #6 Seed – Can Move Up to #5 Seed w/ a win + BAL win + PIT loss)

Gang Green has been all over the place this season.  The aforementioned Week 1 loss to the Ravens showed the ineptitude of their offense.  The next week’s win against the Pats showcased Sanchez as the future standard-bearer of AFC East quarterbacks.  The Jets play like the class of the AFC until Denver nearly knocked them off and then put up an offense egg against Green Bay (literally no points).  Since then, the Jets have either won games unconvincingly, barely escaping with overtime road wins or getting embarrassed by their AFC East counterparts New England and Miami.  Luckily for Jets fans, a win at Pittsburgh and a hard-fought losing effort in Chicago may illustrate that the Jets are getting revved up for another playoff run.

My Take: The Jets will be on the road next week and are comfortable in that position.  They were better on the road than at home (it was a brand new home though).  Depending on seeding, they will be, like the AFC North runner-up, playing in either Indy, KC or J’ville.  As I have stated before, Peyton Manning unnerves me at home.  I have a strange feeling that if the Colts are in, #18 is going to have one last gasp before a road loss in the Divisional.  The Jets would certainly relish the chance to get revenge for last year’s loss in the AFC Championship where it went down.  Again, Jacksonville would be the Jets first choice but that will only happen if the Jets move up to #5.  That requires Baltimore to win the North, which I think will not happen.  I am also unenthusiastic about a trip to Arrowhead.  KC is undefeated at home this season.  The Chiefs defense has played above their potential this year and the offensive protects the ball.  This is a tough call but if the Jags are not an option, I’d be in for a trip to Indy and a shot to knock off one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks having an awful season.

The Bullet: New England Patriots

New York Giants (Currently Outside Looking In as NFC #7 Seed – Can Move Up to #6 w/ win and GB loss)

The Giants have looked horrible the past two weeks.  Ugly losses have shown their vulnerabilities.  The freaky fourth-quarter debacle against Philly was just the beginning of the end.  What was telling was their inability to bounce back.  The Packers dominated New York in every facet of the game.  The Giants looked magnificent the first half of the season but have regressed.  Eli Manning looks weak and listless.  Coughlin’s in the hot seat now with Bill Cowher waiting in the wings to take his job.  If the players really want another Coughlin season, they better go to Washington and embarrass them.  Then they need to do some damage in the playoffs.

My Take: There is one playoff scenario for the G-Men.  If they are so fortunate to win and have Green Bay lose, they will face the Eagles in Philadelphia.  They will need to forget Week 15.  Matt Dodge will have to punt out of bounce, the offense will need to light up the scoreboard and the defense will need to play sixty minutes.  This might be the one time the Eagles where three times a charm for the winners of the previous two division games.

The Bullet (if they make it): Philadelphia Eagles

To Recap:

• Pats want JAX, KC, IND; Knock-out: BAL or PIT
• Eagles want TB, NYG; Knock-out: GB
• Ravens as #2 or #5 want JAX, KC, IND; Knock-out: PIT
• Jets want JAX, IND, KC; Knock-out: NE
• Giants want a win, GB loss and a Philly forfeit; Knock-out: PHI